Some responses were always going to be predictable. For instance, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei replied, “The nations of this part of the world... deeply hate America. Even if they give sweet and beautiful [speeches] to the Muslim nation that will not create change. Action is needed.”
Leaving the irony to one side that the American right and the Ayatollah share a belief that Obama is all mouth and no trousers, let’s just think about this question of action versus words for a moment. It’s easy to try, since Obama laid out the items in his speech with his usual numerical precision.
1. Iraq, Afghanistan, Al Qaeda
Obama says: “We do not want to keep our troops in Afghanistan. We see no military -- we seek no military bases there. It is agonizing for America to lose our young men and women. It is costly and politically difficult to continue this conflict. We would gladly bring every single one of our troops home if we could be confident that there were not violent extremists in Afghanistan and now Pakistan determined to kill as many Americans as they possibly can. But that is not yet the case.”
Actions: In 2005, John McCain called for the establishment of permanent military bases in Afghanistan. According to Wikipedia, “In mid-March, 2005, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Richard Myers told reporters in Kabul that the U.S. Defense Department was studying the feasibility of such permanent military bases. At the end of March, the U.S. military announced that it was spending $83-million on its two main air bases in Afghanistan, Bagram Air Base north of Kabul and Kandahar Air Field in the south of the country.”
On the one hand, as part of the surge in Afghanistan, reports are that the US is building “two huge new bases” in Helmand and Zabul provinces. Whether this is a prelude to a longer term withdrawal or not, it seems unlikely that Muslims (or others in the region) will take this a sign that the US has no long term aspiration to maintain a military presence in the country.
On the other hand, though, Obama is pushing ahead with withdrawal from Iraq, closure of Guantanamo and has prohibited torture of detainees.
Conclusion: If Obama can deliver, this will amount to a major promise fulfilled in the Middle East, but it seems hard to believe that he can avoid the appearance of long term military aspirations in Afghanistan and Pakistan given the military approach he is taking there.
2. Israel/Palestine
Obama says: “The United States does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements. This construction violates previous agreements and undermines efforts to achieve peace. It is time for these settlements to stop.”
Actions: The roadmap for peace called for a complete freezing of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories, including “natural growth” – meaning building new housing within existing settlements. Yet between 2002 and 2006, the number of Jewish settlers in West Bank settlements rose by more than 40,000.
Reports today have been fed to the press claiming that the Bush administration privately agreed to parse the meaning of natural growth in the original roadmap agreement. “Not everything is written down,” a former Bush official was recorded saying by the New York Times. The report goes on: “He and others said that Israel agreed to the road map and to move ahead with the removal of settlements and soldiers from Gaza in 2005 on the understanding that settlement growth could continue.”
In his recent meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Obama explicitly reiterated the commitment to halting the growth of Israeli settlements. "I've said very clearly to the Israelis both privately and publicly that a freeze on settlements, including natural growth, is part of those obligations,” he told NPR (source: Reuters). Netanyahu immediately rejected the call.
Conclusion: This appears to mark a serious effort by the Obama administration to start holding the Israelis to their side of the roadmap. Whether this will be enough to restart the peace process is an entirely different matter.
3. Nuclear proliferation
Obama says: “But it is clear to all concerned that when it comes to nuclear weapons, we have reached a decisive point. This is not simply about America's interests. It's about preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that could lead this region and the world down a hugely dangerous path.”
Actions: Obama has repeatedly offered to begin negotiations without preconditions on this matter with Iran, a major difference to the preceding administration. The statement in the Cairo speech that “any nation -- including Iran -- should have the right to access peaceful nuclear power if it complies with its responsibilities under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty” is presumably another not-so-subtle wink along these lines.
Conclusion: Offers much potential for progress, but it takes two to tango. At least in part, this matter is dependent upon the unclear strategic goals of the Iranian government. Can some form of security guarantee obviate the need for status and power offered by nuclear weaponry?
4. Democracy
Obama says: “So no matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by the people sets a single standard for all who would hold power: You must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. “
Actions: Not much that I've seen to date.
Conclusion: This is a central problem for American strategy in the Middle East, one that was repeatedly exposed during the Cold War as the United States concluded throughout the world that its geopolitical needs overrode any fundamental commitment to democracy. Since then, democracy promotion has become a much more central part of the US foreign policy infrastructure. But is it really conceivable that Egypt and Saudi Arabia can be pushed towards genuine multi-party democracies and open societies without producing the kind of political instability that US foreign policy leaders will baulk at?
5. Religious freedom
Obama says: “People in every country should be free to choose and live their faith based upon the persuasion of the mind and the heart and the soul.”
Actions: Zakat, the Muslim equivalent of tithing, has been damaged by restrictions of the flow of money to Muslim regions introduced as counter-terrorism measures following September 11.
Conclusion: The president will get a great deal of credit for recognizing the resonance of this issue, and he seems committed to clarifying the rules so as to maintain restrictions on funding Hamas, Hizballah, etc. but at the same time reopen zakat networks.
His statement on defending the right of Muslim women to wear the Hijab will also presumably go down well. But what about religious freedom and diversity in Iraq, which has taken a substantial step backwards since the invasion? And what implications are we to expect from his reference to “Maronites in Lebanon or the Copts in Egypt”? As yet unclear.
6. Women’s rights
Obama says: “I do not believe that women must make the same choices as men in order to be equal, and I respect those women who choose to live their lives in traditional roles. But it should be their choice. And that is why the United States will partner with any Muslim-majority country to support expanded literacy for girls, and to help young women pursue employment through micro-financing that helps people live their dreams.”
Actions: Nothing I've seen to date.
Conclusion: Too early to tell. But this undoubtedly marks a faultline where Obama will have to risk alienating potential Muslim allies if he is serious.
7. Economic development
Obama says: “But all of us must recognize that education and innovation will be the currency of the 21st century -- and in too many Muslim communities, there remains underinvestment in these areas. I'm emphasizing such investment within my own country. And while America in the past has focused on oil and gas when it comes to this part of the world, we now seek a broader engagement.”
Actions: Obama announced “a new corps of business volunteers to partner with counterparts in Muslim-majority countries ... a Summit on Entrepreneurship ... a new fund to support technological development in Muslim-majority countries ... centers of scientific excellence in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia ... new science envoys to collaborate on programs that develop new sources of energy, create green jobs, digitize records, clean water, grow new crops ... a new global effort with the Organization of the Islamic Conference to eradicate polio ... we will also expand partnerships with Muslim communities to promote child and maternal health.”
Conclusion: In the long term, such economic diplomacy has the potential to be one of the most powerful ways of improving America’s relationship with the Middle East and the Muslim world. But it will take a sustained commitment over a generation before it will have major diplomatic ramifications.
Summing up
Looking at the points item by item, it's clear that the record to date of the Obama administration, and the potential offered by his policies in the region are perhaps mixed. Obama’s ambitious agenda is certainly not without pitfalls – Iran, the roadmap and the surge in Afghanistan and Pakistan being clearly the most risky elements. There is still plenty of opportunity for the wheels to come off the wagon.
That said, Obama can already point to a record has produced meaningful change, not to mention a set of policies that offer the real possibility of further delivery in the next two to three years. Compared to the hectoring, abusiveness, and backsliding that comprised the illusion of policy by the past administration, this is an enormous shift in the role of the United States in the Muslim world. The idea that defenders of the Bush legacy and enemies of the Western system can accuse Obama of simply being about ‘words’ is, therefore, ridiculous.
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