I haven’t had a chance to read the press yet, they’re typically wrong about these things anyway, and it’ll be a while before we’re able to see with any clarity whether it has any meaningful impact on the course of the debate over health care. Things were never as off-kilter as the media presented them during the past month; the bubble of boredom misshaped a lot of the debate and made Obama’s position on the capitol seem more dangerous than it was. And nor was it accurate to say, as the media had also been claiming in the build up to the speech, that the president needed firmly to limit the content of the final bill and thus force lawmakers into a particular framework. Negotiations are still going on behind the scenes, and it would have been crazy to prejudice them with too explicit statements before an audience of millions.
Given all this, I’m going out on a limb. But I’m tempted to say that Barack Obama’s speech to congress yesterday night was one of his best. In terms of emotional range and sophistication of argument, I honestly can’t remember a speech like it.
The intensity of the moment was no doubt magnified by the fact that its messages were delivered directly to an audience of people intimately involved in the process of negotiation. You could pretty much identify who each sentence was being directed at; and the feed I watched on CNN helpfully made it even easier by generally cutting to the requisite individual at the appropriate moment. I’m probably biased in this, but it was great to watch John Boehner’s queasy face as the president talked about holding insurance companies accountable. And it was moving to see the Kennedy boys at the end. As Obama read out the letter from Ted it was hard not to see them as little kids sitting next to each other listening to someone speak about their Dad.
Obama took the same line he always did: stressing his credentials as a president rising above the fray. But this was the most partisan example of bipartisanship we’ve seen yet. His early comments were delivered with what seemed like uncharacteristic annoyance for a president who has so far seemed to be on a speed march to Nirvana. His decision to describe the “death panel” accusation as a lie was a step beyond the “untruth” claim he has previously made. It will almost certainly be the case that this reinforces hostility on the radical right. He certainly ran a risk taking this approach, and needs to be careful he doesn't go too far. But, as the heckling from the floor and almost immediate grovelling apology of Representative Joe Wilson showed, last night will probably play well with the centre. Americans tend to have strong feelings in different directions about their presidents, but they sanctify the office itself. The Republicans have pushed themselves into a corner where it is very hard for them to appear as anything other than obstructionists.
And while there wasn’t much in terms of policy, two things stood out. First, the Republicans have been somewhat triangulated by Obama on tort reform. This further establishes the President as the master of the centre ground. Second, and more importantly, we got a glimpse of what the "solution" to the public option debate is going to be, clearly the most fraught part of the bill.
This was where most people thought the president could come a cropper. Without Ted Kennedy's vote the Senate was unlikely to force cloture on a bill which had a strong public option in it if the healthcare lobby said so. But the House Democrats had said they wouldn’t support a bill without it. This meant that most people thought the president was going to have to come down on one side or the other, and risk alienating a powerful group.
In truth, though, neither was an option politically, and Obama recognized this yesterday. So what the president did instead was reinvent the meaning of public option as “the basic principle that if Americans can't find affordable coverage, we will provide you with a choice.” This creates room for a combination of private cooperative and kick-in clause after X years, which can then be presented as a public option, or at least an effective public option, to the House but not appear to be caving in to the Democratic left.
Clearly this is a fudge, and everyone will know it. But it provides a narrative to the end game, which is the White House’s number one priority. Obama is calculating that most people care more about the impact of the bill than its method. Moreover, he recognizes that, at the end of the day, left wing Democrats are more likely to cave in on this than Republicans, for the simple reason that intransigence leading to a defeated bill rewards Republicans in partisan terms, while it threatens to destroy the Democratic majority, when there are signs already that the House will be swinging toward the GOP in 2010. There are therefore more incentives for the Democrats to negotiate a solution than there are for Republicans. Given these pressures, I think the president will conclude he can persuade House Democrats that an alternative along compromise lines will achieve the core goals even while it concedes the mechanism.
Short of something incredibly dramatic happening, we will see an insurance reform bill by the end of the year. Short of something miraculous, this will include these kind of mechanisms but not a full fledged public option. If twenty or thirty million Americans get coverage through this, if preexisting condition selection is banned, and if it makes it easier for people to move around, then this will still be a massive step forward for America.
Think Of the Children
57 minutes ago
