The line between tragedy and farce

Yesterday’s pompous airborne standoff between the circling president Zelaya and the Honduran army which was blocking his landing had all the drama of a classic moment in history without the accompanying sense of meaning. Reporters seem, unsurprisingly, unable to work out its political consequences. Ever since the remarkable events surrounding the failed coup attempt against Chávez, Latin American crises have tacked dangerously close to the absurd in their taste for the dramatic, and yesterday was no different. What would have happened if Zelaya had landed, anyway? The wannabe government would have arrested him. Zelaya says that if he had a parachute, he would have jumped from the plane. I’m sure they had parachutes...! On both sides, showmanship of the worst order.

With the Liberal party, Church, business elites and army lined up against the erstwhile president, and the OAS, World Bank, EU, United States and most of the rest of Latin America condemning Micheletti and Co., it’s tempting to see this as a crisis of Honduras’ elites against the world. The decision to kick Honduras out of the OAS (the first time something like this has happened since Cuba) is pretty remarkable. The “ousters” have dramatically failed in the public relations battle; few people in the rest of the world seem to see these events as anything other than a straightforward coup; sanctions are beginning to be implemented from the international community; the danger to democracy is seen as coming from the army.

It’s extremely difficult to see how the administration could back down and allow Zelaya to return, but it’s equally hard to imagine Honduras being able to resist the combined might of the rest of the continent for too long, especially as the risk of regional escalation will ultimately ensure US-backed engagement of some sort or another in the absence of a resolution. One thing that is clear, though: this conflict will continue to unfold in performance as both sides attempt to press their claims through overblown public action.

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