Monday, April 06, 2009

Oh, what a tangled web we weave

So, if I’m following current diplomatic thinking correctly ...

Overtures to Syria offer the possibility of progress with Israel on the Golan Heights. Progress with Syria offers the possibility of restraining Hamas and Hezbollah, and thus reopening the peace process in Palestine. Detaching Syria from Iran further isolates the latter, which strengthens the US hand in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Controlling proliferation in the Middle East allows for the cancellation of the missile defence shield without alienating East European NATO allies. Cancelling the shield improves relations with Russia, allowing for broader progress on nuclear disarmament and perhaps even the signing of a comprehensive test ban treaty, although North Korea’s missile test is also evidence of the importance of nuclear disarmament – and nuclear disarmament also aids US efforts to reduce the budget deficit without hitting central “military-industrial” lobbyists. By offering the removal of the missile shield as an end goal, Russia is then incentivised to further negotiations with Iran rather than undermine them. Progress with Iran will aid the process of removing US troops from Iraq, which will allow for a greater redeployment of forces in Afghanistan, which will put additional pressure on the Al Qaeda strongholds in the frontier regions of Pakistan, further focusing the Pakistani government on the problem of Islamic fundamentalism rather than its rivalry with India in Kashmir which can then be settled peacefully.

Did I miss anything out? It all sounds so easy when you put it like this...!

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1 comments:

peter said...

Neat. A challenge for any rational reconstruction of US foreign policy (as indeed, for any rational construction of it) is that some actors (eg, the present Iranian administration) make their policy according to different notions of rationality, while others (the leadership of the DPRK) make policy according to no notion of rationality at all. Any coherent foreign and military policy is effectively powerless against enemies, like the Kim family, who are mad. Sadly, only a Kissengerian we-too-are-madmen policy has any chance of working against the DPRK.

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